Had the Republican primary been 3 from the start I think The Donald would have been hard pressed to win and to be honest I don't think he would have gotten in. He got in because with that many candidates he could win early on due to name recognition alone. In the end Trump ended up with the delegates needed to secure the nomination despite having much lower than 50% approval among Republican voters. They don't want him, but they got him because he won enough delegates and no one else did.
Hillary, on the other hand, only had a couple of opponents early, and Bernie really turned out to be a thorn in her side. In the end their in fighting (not directly as opponents, but more their supporters) have left the Democratic party as deeply divided as the Republican party at the moment. The Democrat system of Super Delegates is doing exactly what it was always designed to do ... protect the party from the will of the people.
In that regard they have the opposite problem of the Republicans their system is putting forward a candidate that a large portion, even a majority, of the party voters consider unqualified for the position because the 'insiders' are supporting the candidate that the PARTY wants rather than the candidate that the PEOPLE want.
So we have a situation here I don't have the actual numbers but my recollection of the last time I looked Republicans and Democrats each had roughly 35% of the voter and 30% were independent. This is why both parties are always heavily trying to sway the independent vote to their side. Now if we say half of the Democrats don't like Hillary (will call that 17% of the over all voters) and the same with Republicans. Independents are a little harder but in general they don't like either Hillary or Trump either.
That gives us 18% of voters still liking Hillary, and about 18% liking Trump ... let's assume that there are some independents that like them too and make it 25% / 25% for the two of them. That leaves 50% of voters out there in limbo. You would think that this would be the prime opportunity for one or more of the other parties to make a move. There is, after all, a significant portion of the voting public that doesn't like either of the two options from the 'Big 2'.
And really it is. I think it's high time that we picked up a 3rd or even 4th 'major' party in this country. Competition is good, it is the force that drives improvement, creates discussion and leads change. The 'Big 2' haven't had any significant competition in ages, they have stagnated in the echo chambers with their supporters, entrenched in their ideals and opposed to change.
But here is the dilemma, those 3rd parties can't get votes without being seen as risking one of the hated 'Big 2' candidates getting elected. So Republicans that detest Trump might consider a Gary Johnson (Libertarian) ticket, but voting for Johnson means Trump looses a vote and that is one vote less that Hillary needs to win. Likewise a Bernie Sanders supporter that doesn't like Hillary may consider a Jill Stein (Green) ticket, but voting Stein means potentially seeing Trump win.
As a result the disgruntled Republican and Democrat voters are, more likely, going to vote for a candidate that they dislike out of fear of one they dislike more ... so now we're at something akin to 42% Rep / 42% Dem and 16% third party split between Libertarian and Green parties and in the end the map doesn't look much different than it would normally and people will continue with the 'Third Parties aren't viable' line that we hear every election.
The Media and Election system don't help matters. The media spends next to no time covering 3rd party candidates (because they 'aren't contenders') and the Election system puts major road blocks to any party other than Republican and Democrat getting on the ballot at all. Meaning those candidates have to struggle to even get listed, and if they don't get listed in all 50 states the chances of them winning (or even showing in any significant %) is slim to none.
Can a Hillary or Trump hurt this country ... yes, and I'm positive that if either one of them is elected the effects will be significant. But in the end that's WHY I'm voting 3rd party ... maybe it means Hillary gets elected ... maybe it means Trump does. I no longer care in either case, I have reached a point where I can no longer hold my nose and vote for a pile of garbage because the other pile of garbage is slightly more smelly.
That kind of thing is what got us where we are in politics today, and it is never going to get us out of it. Because if I vote for Trump I'm telling the system that I want a loose cannon, say anything, huckster. And you know what we'll get next election cycle if Trump gets a large % of votes? More loose cannon, say anything hucksters ... because that is what we will have told the system that we want. There is no way to say 'I am casting this vote against Hillery and her corruption' or 'I'm casting this vote because I think we need a business minded President, but I am concerned about Trump's rhetoric.' all the system sees is that X% of people AGREE with Trump ... if X% is high enough then the logical conclusion is that if you want those votes you need to BE LIKE Trump.
I fully expect that one of the 'Big 2' will ultimately get elected .... but I'll be damned if my vote is going to help them get to that point. Rather I would like my vote to try and lift up the Libertarian party in the hopes that maybe if we can get that % up high enough to be noticed maybe ... if nothing else ... one (or both) of the 'Big 2' will be forced to go 'Hmmmm, maybe we need to change something .... '
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